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Shore Might be Spared Much of Arthur's Rain, Wind; Heavy Surf, Rip Currents Predicted

The Shore might be safe from rain on Friday, but storms forecast for Thursday as front moves through

Photo: CIMSS/University of Wisconsin
Photo: CIMSS/University of Wisconsin
Portions of the Carolinas were placed under hurricane and tropical storm watches Wednesday morning, but the track of Tropical Storm Arthur looked as if the Jersey Shore would be spared from the driving rains and worst wind impacts from the first named storm of the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season.

An update from the National Hurricane Center at 11 a.m. Wednesday called for Arthur to be declared a hurricane within 24 and 36 hours, meaning its sustained winds would top 74 m.p.h.

But New Jersey forecasters have grown more optimistic that the Garden State would be able to salvage at least part of the Independence Day holiday on Friday. A National Hurricane Center rainfall potential map did not list any impacts in New Jersey.

"If the tropical system takes a northeastward turn late in the week, as we suspect, rain and thunderstorms will begin to shift eastward and out to sea Friday afternoon and evening so that the weather improves for fireworks Friday night from Washington, D.C., to Philadelphia and New York City," AccuWeather Long-Range Expert Paul Pastelok said in a post to the company's website.

"The overall track forecast reasoning remains unchanged, as the tropical cyclone should continue northward for the next 12 to 24 hours and then gradually accelerate northeastward," between a trough and a strengthening ridge to the east, the hurricane center said in its update.

The Shore area, according to a forecast posted by the National Weather Service office in Mount Holly, will see its greatest risk of heavy rain this week from a frontal system rather than Arthur. Strong thunderstorms that could bring flooding rains are likely Wednesday night into Thursday, with the risk continuing through Friday. But the bulk of the storms will clear, from west to east, on Friday and Arthur is being forecast to stay far enough out to see where the two systems are unlikely to converge.

But despite the lessened threat of tropical rains over the past day, meteorologists were still warning about the potentially deadly impacts of Arthur when it comes to rip currents.

"Depending on the eventual track of Arthur, wind and tides may be of concern, especially Friday," a briefing package from the National Weather Service said, indicating the surf would be heavy.

Fearing high winds and the potential for rain, some towns have already cancelled fireworks displays and other celebrations, though many are still playing the waiting game – and might be rewarded for their patience.

"Most computer models are in good agreement," said meteorologist John Bolaris in an article for Philly.com. "Arthur should strike along the Eastern North Carolina coast by early Friday morning. But a rather pronounced curvature should keep him well off the coast of Delaware and Southern New Jersey during the day on Friday."
McCorry July 02, 2014 at 04:14 PM
lol bread & milk selling out fast.
Nancy EMD July 02, 2014 at 04:31 PM
Oh, yes the pre-storm panic shoppers make me laugh. I could see if we lived in Montana where there isn't a store within a 100 mile radius but there are stores all over the place. If not a supermarket , we got 7/11's , WaWa's, etc....
Deep Throat July 02, 2014 at 05:04 PM
After reading this I have concluded that they have no clue about what will happen but will be the first ones on Saturday telling us that they predicted correctly whatever did happen.
B July 02, 2014 at 06:40 PM
That's why it's a prediction......like predicting the future.......they have no idea......
Frank forkman July 03, 2014 at 03:40 AM
French Toast Heah , git ya french toast Heah ... LOL

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